Sometimes it really sucks to be a Cassandra
but hey, I'm not always right about things so we have that going for us
No one reading this remembers the Great Depression with its 50% unemployment rate, rampant homelessness, Prohibition (and the government poisoning their own citizens that came with it), soup kitchens, and the rise organized crime.
It’s unlikely that anyone reading this remembers World War II, with its drafts and women entering the workforce to do “men’s work,” Japanese interment camps, and food rations.
Most of us remember the recession in 2008. Everything sort of screeched to a halt all at once—new construction stopped, businesses closed, the state didn’t maintain interstates, and credit card applications stopped hitting mailboxes. It took several years for the US housing market and the global economy to stabilize.
Of course we all remember the early days of COVID. The world shut down essentially all at once in March of 2020. Supply chains broke, grocery shelves emptied, businesses struggled to stay afloat while other businesses flourished, and wealth disparity widened, due in large part to the billionaire class.
What’s coming for the US in the next 6-12 months—likely sooner rather than later, because I think we’re firmly in the “suddenly” part of the quote from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises*--is a massive, massive economic crash. If the US invades a NATO ally—which is entirely likely at this point—we’ll be embroiled in the beginning of WWIII while fighting a civil war** at home. It could look a whole lot like 1925, 1944, 2008, and 2020 all at once. Worst case scenario? US bonds flooding the market and sanctions from (now former) allies could mean that a majority of US-based businesses will close their doors, the US stock exchange will cease to exist, and any money you have will become essentially worthless.
I could be wrong. I hope I’m wrong. Even if I am, we are firmly in the “early during times” part of … well, whatever this reckoning turns out to be.
What does that mean for most of us? Focus on what you can. Stock up on dry goods and shelf-stable food, if you haven’t already. Liquidate some money and have cash on hand if you’re able (yes, I know I just said it may end up being worthless, but we may not reach the actual worst-case scenario). Stock up on medications if you’re able (yes yes yes insurance makes this impossible but Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Pharmacy will let you purchase a 90-day supply of meds if you can take the generic version. I’m on three meds and a 90-day supply costs me $21 out of pocket). Have portable batteries charged at all times. Pack a go-bag in case you have to leave your house fast (say, if someone decides to bomb the city you’re in). Yes, we still have to do laundry and finish our homework and pay our bills and generally live our lives. But we also can’t keep our heads in the sand and pretend this isn’t happening. Prepare yourselves as much as you can.
We can’t ever go back to “before”—whatever your version of “before” is—and the only way out of this is through. By the time it’s all said and done our borders may look different. Our lives will be different. We will all be changed, in some ways for the better. But if we care for each other, and put a bit of joy into every day (the humanities are *great* for that, by the way), we can help create a more equitable future for us all.
*Hemingway was talking about bankruptcy when he wrote “gradually, then suddenly,” but it applies to pretty much everything, including geopolitical landscapes.
**We’re already effectively in a civil war. It’s going to get worse.